Is there a reset in this political game?

(Part 5 of 4???)

There’s a famous quote that rings true occasionally.

“It ain’t over till it’s over.”
– Yogi Berra

Yogi made that famous statement during the 1973 season with the New York Mets. His team was down at the time, but came back to win the pennant.

It was true this year in the World Series. The Chicago Cubs were down 3 – 1. At that point the odds clearly favored the Cleveland Indians. But the Cubs came back and won.

It wasn’t over till it was over.

It was also true this year in the Presidential election.
Many people believed that when most psychics and the vast majority of polls so favored Clinton, the election was essentially over. (The media have put out several hypotheses as to why the polls were wrong.)

It wasn’t.

So is the Presidential election over and done?

No.

It’s not over till it’s over.

There are still a couple of steps to go.  And there are very strong feelings on both sides.

But at least we can be grateful that all the lying, misleading, jaded, and so on ads have stopped. What a relief that is!

The first step is the Electoral College.
So what is the Electoral College?
It’s certainly not an educational institution.
It’s a body of people called electors from the various states who meet on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December. The electors don’t all come together in one place, but typically meet in their respective states.
They are directed to vote for a President and a Vice President, one of whom must be from a different state than the electors.

A win under the current system requires 270 votes.
Normally the Electoral College is a given based on projections. But is it this year?

There is more uncertainty in the College than I’ve seen before, even in the 2000 contested election.

Somebody has to win. As of now, though, there are still some different possibilities.

Trump currently has a projected lead, 290 votes to 232 for Clinton, with Michigan still not included. At last report, Michigan was leaning to Trump by a few thousand votes. If it finally declares for Trump, the totals would be 306 to 232. That would almost be a certain win for him. (Is it over yet?)

But …
What happens if Michigan goes for Clinton, as New Hampshire did late? The totals would then be 290 to 248.

Let’s indulge ourselves in a little speculation on this basis.

Some electors have reportedly stated they will not vote for the person they had pledged to vote for. It’s not clear who all of those are.

Some pledged Trump electors claim to have received death threats unless they change their vote to Clinton. Will they change?

Let’s look at the possibilities.

If less than 10% of the electors supposedly pledged to Trump change their mind,
it could get very interesting – or even crucial.

If…
Say 22 of these so-called Faithless Electors switch from Trump to Clinton and all the Clinton electors hold firm, the entire picture could change.

Clinton would then be the new President with 270 votes.

Or …
What if only 21 of them change like that? That would result in a tie, with 269 for each candidate.
The election would then go to the House of Representatives, according to the 12th Amendment.
In this situation, each state present would have one vote. Voting representatives from two-thirds of the states need to be present to make a quorum, and a majority of all states is required to win – i.e., 26 or more.
It appears Trump won in 29 states. Clinton won 20, counting Maine, which is a mixture.

This is another opportunity for votes to shift. Or for some states to be absent. Either or both could shift the election.
A shift of four state votes from Trump would lead to a tie. More would give the election to Clinton. (Washington D.C. is not a state, so it would not be a player in this activity, as it is in the electoral college.)
If it’s a tie or there is no resolution, the new Vice President would then serve as President.

Or, also interesting …
What if 21 of Trump’s pledged electors just refuse to vote for him – i.e. abstain from the Presidential vote, but still vote for the Vice President?
In that case, no Presidential candidate would have the necessary 270 electoral votes. The election would be sent to the House, to be worked as above.

The Second Step is the official tally.
A joint session of Congress on January 6th counts and certifies the electoral votes.

We may not know for certain until then whether we have a situation to deal with or not.

The elector results are not “official” until this point.
If the Electoral College vote provides for the victory of one candidate, then it’s settled.

The new or re-elected President takes the oath of office on January 20th.

Then it’s over – for four years or until the President leaves office for some reason.